国有林场改革成效评价——职工获得感的统计分析

利用国有林场职工监测数据,基于物质维度和精神维度,从改革后职工自身的收益情况、职工对林场的整体评价、职工对林场管理方式的评价等方面,采用比较分析法和主成分分析法对国有林场改革职工获得感进行分析。研究结果表明:国有林场改革后职工获得感有所提升,改革进程与职工获得感呈强正相关性,改革促进了林场的可持续发展。但林场整体基础设施环境一般,场部相对较好,管护站点则较差。同时,在领导班子建设方面应注重自主、公平,仍需提高领导水平。     

You say you want a (Rose) Revolution? The effects of Georgia's 2004 market reforms

After Georgia declared its independence from the Soviet Union, it experienced civil war and strife for more than a decade. In late 2003, the peaceful Rose Revolution installed a new government that began a series of radical market‐liberal reforms. However, the effectiveness of these reforms was controversial. We offer a rigorous evaluation of these reforms via the synthetic control method which creates a credible counterfactual. Compared to the synthetic controls, we find that the reforms enacted after the Rose Revolution led to significant improvements in Georgia's social and economic development, albeit with temporary side effects and argue that this case provides some support for the effectiveness of rapid, multidimensional reform.     

特许权价值、最优关闭策略和存款保险定价

随着存款保险制度的推出以及金融机构退出机制的完善，国家声誉将逐渐退出银行无形资本。在激励相容的金融监管趋势下，特许权价值等市场约束力量会显著影响到商业银行的风险承担。在此逻辑基础上，以我国16家上市商业银行为研究对象，一方面探讨特许权价值影响下不同产权结构的商业银行的最优救助机制，另一方面通过最优救助临界指标，利用银行重组模型，推导合理的存款保险风险差别费率。     

地方财政压力与投资多样性——基于所得税分享改革的研究

利用企业所得税分享改革构建强度倍差模型，使用1997—2012年全国地级市数据，检验了地方财政压力对于投资多样性的影响及相关传导机制。结果表明，地方财政压力不利于投资多样性的提高；在财政压力下，地方容易形成偏向房地产行业的投资倾向。然而，不同地区地方财政压力对投资结构的影响存在异质性。经济发展水平较低的地区在财政压力下更容易降低投资多样性；而经济发展水平高的地区应对财政压力时，更倾向于通过多元化投资的方式做大税基、减轻财政压力。优化分税制结构、建立地方性税种能缓解地方财政压力，对于改变地方“房地产集中型”投资结构有一定的积极作用。     

供给侧结构性改革中加强小型水利工程管理能力建设的思路与重点

围绕深化小型水利工程管理体制改革和管护机制创新,以推进供给侧结构性改革为主线,分析当前我国小型水利工程管理能力面临的新形势,结合小型水利工程管理现状及存在的主要问题,探讨供给侧结构性改革中如何加强工程管理单位能力建设,并从供给侧结构性改革角度,提出创新管护模式、拓宽经费渠道、加强农民用水合作组织建设、建立考核评价机制等建议。     

玉米收储制度改革背景下旱作农业区农户杂粮种植意愿影响因素分析——基于内蒙古自治区、辽宁省411个农户的调查数据

[目的]利用内蒙古自治区乌兰察布丰镇市、凉城县、兴和县,辽宁省朝阳市朝阳县411个农户调查数据,分析玉米收储制度改革背景下北方旱作区农户杂粮种植影响因素。[方法]首先对户主个人特征、家庭禀赋两个一般影响因素进行分析,然后重点对自然和社会资源特征、市场环境、政策环境3个影响因素进行分析。[结果](1)由于户主年龄偏大且文化程度较低、户均从事农业生产的劳动力数量和拥有的耕地面积都较少,农户面对玉米市场价格下跌改种其他农作物的能力较弱;(2)尽管农户普遍认同杂粮适合当地自然条件,但是缺乏企业带动,订单种植杂粮的比例较低,农户种植杂粮存在较高的销售风险;(3)虽然农户普遍预期玉米市场价格持平和走低,但是多数农户对杂粮市场价格没有明确预期,杂粮收益存在较高的不确定性;(4)农户普遍不了解玉米收储制度改革的具体内容,且绝大部分农户没有获得杂粮生产支持,不利于引导农户种植杂粮。[结论]应从加强政策宣传、扶持杂粮加工龙头企业、扩大杂粮补贴范围等方面着手,引导北方旱作区农户种植杂粮,减少玉米收储制度改革对其收入的冲击。     

宁夏重点研发计划体系改革和运行机制优化研究

应用数据统计分析、文本分析等研究方法,采用实地查看、专家咨询、单独访谈、会议询问等调研方式,结合电话访谈、邮件咨询,对2017—2018年度立项在研的宁夏重点研发计划重大和重点项目运行成效和运行机制开展研究,总结宁夏重点研发计划的运行成效,深入分析重点研发计划的运行中存在的关键问题,并对重点研发计划体系改革和运行机制优化提出了有针对性、可操作性的建议,为进一步推动"放管服"改革、提升科技计划运行效能、全面落实创新驱动战略提供了方向.     

Ideological taboos,entry barriers,and FDI attraction: Evidence from China

Developing and transitional countries often impose a wide variety of entry barriers on foreign direct investments (FDIs). One important reason behind these entry barriers is ideological taboos. However, do these taboos actually affect the inflow of FDIs? With the help of China’s “cultural system reform,” this study uses a panel data of 283 prefecture-level cities in China for 1994–2017 and the difference-in-differences method to evaluate the effect of the cultural system reform on regional FDI. We found that the cultural system reform remarkably promoted the inflow of FDIs by deregulating institutions and removing entry barriers, and the attraction of FDI has slowly increased along with the deepening of the reform. Our conclusions still hold after performing several robustness tests, thereby highlighting ideologies as important barriers to the inflow of FDIs into less developed countries.     

"特朗普税改政策"的溢出效应及中国的应对策略

特朗普税改使美国成为税收洼地,各国为争夺国际资本竞相效仿降税,加剧了全球税收竞争,为世界经济复苏增加了更多的不确定性.因此,有必要通过构建利润转移视角的税收竞争模型,揭示特朗普税改对全球经济产生溢出效应的作用机制及赤字约束问题,并运用一般均衡模型(CGE)模拟特朗普税改对世界经济溢出效应的长短期影响.特朗普税改是以邻为壑的经济政策,但长期内对中国等世界主要经济体的负面影响不断减弱,并会对出口产生一定的正面影响.因此,我国应构建国际税务交互管理体制,强化企业税收激励的法制保障,完善税改冲击的应急运行机制.     

Remaking Shanghai: New Divisions in an Expanding Metropolis

This study of Shanghai analyzes the city's emerging patterns of residential settlement in 2010. Most previous research on China focused on central city patterns, but by 2010 urban development in major metropolitan areas was taking place predominantly in the suburbs. The analysis re‐examines and extends previous studies of the level of segregation by various key population characteristics, showing that the highest segregation is found in the suburban ring, where original villager residents are now joined by an influx of migrants from other regions and by intracity movers. We probe the sources of the segregation pattern in multivariate analyses at two scales—an innovative analysis at the level of individuals that shows how people's citizenship status, occupation and education affect the type of housing that they are able to live in, and jointly contribute to their location in the metropolitan area. We show that the patterns attributable to the market reform period mostly did not supplant the socialist urban structure, but rather used it as its foundation. Segregation today can be attributed less to current class inequality than to state policies in the distant and recent past that have determined when, where and for whom housing is built.